The Scottish Fiscal Commission published its first annual Statement of Data Needs on 5 September 2018 (link). The statement outlines the data the SFC require for its forecasts and highlights priorities for new or improved data.
Three of the SFC’s main priorities for development of economic data relate to statistics in this publication. The plans relating to these priorities are summarised below.
More detailed breakdowns of Household sector income for Scotland
The ONS has produced underlying breakdowns for some components of annual Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) up to 2016. These have been used for the first time in the 2018 Quarter 2 release to produce quarterly results at the more detailed level. Table X2 includes these sub-components listed below:
· D.1 COE is now split between D.11 Wages and Salaries and D.12 Employer’s Social Contributions. HMRC experimental statistics on earnings from real-time information on income tax (PAYE RTI) have been used for the most recent sub-components.
· B.2g Mixed Income (self employed earnings) is now separated from B.3g Gross Operating Surplus (imputed rental of owner occupiers)
· D.6 Social Transfer Resources is now split between D.61 Employers’ Social Contributions, D.621 Social Security Benefits, D.622 Other Social Benefits (such as workplace pensions) and D.623 Social Assistance Benefits.
GDP by Expenditure chainlinked volume measures (real terms)
The development of first experimental estimates of real GDP(E) have been prioritised for the second half of 2018-19, building on work in recent years to improve the detail of GDP(E) in current prices. The initial approach to real GDP(E) is based on the following components:
· HHFCE using UK Consumer Trends deflators
· NPISH and GGFCE using volume indicators from the GDP(o) system, such as cost weighted activity of healthcare, weighted using sector expenditure breakdowns developed from the OSCAR database (see below)
· GFCF and Trade using detailed industry and product deflators from the GDP(O) system
Initial estimates and a summary of the available data and methods are planned for publication following with the next GDP Quarterly National Accounts in January. This will be discussed with the SFC and other interested users to identify priorities for further development in 2019-20. The initial methods and results will be reviewed and updated on an ongoing quarterly basis.
Breakdowns of public sector expenditure in Scotland
Government consumption expenditure is currently split between local and central government, but with no split between Scottish Government and reserved department spend. There is no breakdown at all for government GFCF. Estimates of these breakdowns will be made using analysis of data from the Online System for Central Accounting and Reporting (OSCAR) spending database and other sources. These results are also needed as part of the development of real GDP(E) esimates noted above. As such, initial estimates are planned for publication following the next GDP Quarterly National Accounts in January.