Scottish Government

Improve people's perceptions about the crime rate in their area

DESCRIPTION:

Estimates the proportion of people who have a positive perception of the general crime rate in their area as measured by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS).

When the fear of crime becomes disproportionate to the reality, it can have a devastating effect on a person's sense of personal safety, lifestyle and quality of life. These effects can increase stress, fear and anxiety. They can lead to an increase in household costs, prompt us to make less use of local amenities, leading to greater economic and social costs for local communities.

SOURCE:

Scottish Crime and Justice Survey - SCJS

The crime survey in Scotland was conducted as part of the British Crime Survey in 1982 and 1988. From 1993 to 2003 a Scotland specific survey was conducted under the title 'Scottish Crime Survey' (SCS) and then as the 'Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey'( SCVS) in 2004 and 2006. From 2008 the crime survey in Scotland ran continuously under the title 'Scottish Crime and Justice Survey' (SCJS) with a larger sample size, providing data annually across financial years from 2008/09 to 2010/11 and in 2012/13 and 2014/15. With effect from 2016-17 the target survey sample has been reduced to 6,000 annually while the survey now runs continuously.

Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS)

2016/17: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/crime-and-justice-survey/publications

2014/15: www.gov.scot/stats/bulletins/01202

2012/13: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/01089

2010/11: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00943

2009/10: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/11/01090437/0

2008/09: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/14120636/0

Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey (SCVS) Technical Report

www.esds.ac.uk/doc/5784%5Cmrdoc%5Cpdf%5C5784 technicalreport.pdf

Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey (SCVS)

2006: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/10/12094216/0

2004: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/01/16115536/0

Scottish Crime Survey (SCS)

2003: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48077

2000: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2002/05/14407/1405

1996: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/1998/12/5d2711f3-543b-4a34-9973-05bbba9e202e

1993: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/1999/01/66575548-b5a9-441f-834a-da44182da2af

The evidence source is designated as a National Statistic.

Overall public perception of crime in the local neighbourhood from 2008/09 onwards will be measured by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey. Reports will be available from the publications section of the Scottish Government website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/Recent. The SCJS dataset will be held on the UK Data Archive http://www.data-archive.ac.uk

Scotland's crime survey, the SCJS, provides a direct measure for this indicator by asking respondents who have stayed in their area for 2 years or more about their perception of the crime level in the area over that period.

The SCJS uses a pre-selected sample which aims to be representative of households in Scotland and at Police Division. In 2016/17, almost 5,570 interviews (from a target of 6,000) were conducted face-to-face using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interview) and CASI (Computer-Assisted Self Interview) for sensitive topics.

Survey results are estimates produced using weighted analysis of survey data. All results therefore have associated confidence intervals. Some of these are outlined in the SCJS reports, and others can be calculated using an online tool. Confidence intervals are important for assessing whether apparent differences overtime or amongst population sub-groups are statistically significant.

Full details are available in the SCJS Technical Report, available from the publications section of the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/Publications/publications

Estimates for time periods before 2008/09 are not directly comparable to figures from 2008/09 forwards due to changes in survey methodology, including to continuous fieldwork. Data on past trends are drawn from a number of Scottish Crime Surveys. For 1992- 2003, data on victimisation was collected from respondents who were asked to think about their experiences in the previous calendar year. For 2004-06, data on victimisation was collected from respondents who were asked to think about their experiences in the previous financial year, and a rolling recall period was used.

DEFINITIONS:

Public: Respondents to the SCJS, a representative sample of the adult Scottish population

Local area: within 15 minutes’ walk of the respondent's house

Positive perception: where people believe that crime has stayed the same or reduced in the past 2 years

General crime: the SCJS question used for measurement asks about "crime in general"

BASELINE AND PAST TRENDS:

The baseline year is 2006 as this is the last data point before the first term of the current administration. The baseline figure is 65%.

Perception of the crime rate in local area over last 2 years:

CRITERIA FOR RECENT CHANGE ARROW:

This evaluation criteria is based on the actual results presented in the Scottish Crime & Justice Survey Main Findings report for detecting statistically significant change. The calculation of the statistically significant criteria for change uses the SCJS estimates and their base sizes to calculate an accurate test statistic to compare against the absolute difference between the two estimates.

The evaluation this year is based on: any difference within +/- 1.9 percentage point of previous survey suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. An increase of 1.9 percentage point or more suggests the position is improving; whereas a decrease of 1.9 percentage point or more suggests the position is worsening.

The change of 0.8 percentage points between 2016/17 (75.5%) 2014/15 (74.7%) is not a statistically significant change. The change is therefore within the criteria for change (measured as 1.9% this year) and so performance for this indicator is ‘maintaining’.

For information on general methodological approach, please click here.

FUTURE ISSUES OR REVIEWS:

No issues.

ASSOCIATED TARGET:

None.