Scottish Government

Reduce crime victimisation rates

DESCRIPTION:

Estimates the proportion of people in Scotland who have been the victim of one or more crimes in the past year, as measured by the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS).

Crime victimisation rates measure the incidence of crimes - as experienced by victims of crime themselves, rather than police records of reported crimes. A high victimisation rate suggests an unsafe community, which impacts on people's quality of life and may deter public and private improvements or investment and reduce the residential desirability of an area.

SOURCE:

The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS)

The crime survey in Scotland was conducted as part of the British Crime Survey in 1982 and 1988. From 1993 to 2003 a Scotland specific survey was conducted under the title 'Scottish Crime Survey' (SCS) and then as the 'Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey'( SCVS) in 2004 and 2006. From 2008 the crime survey in Scotland ran continuously under the title 'Scottish Crime and Justice Survey' (SCJS) with a larger sample size, providing data annually across financial years from 2008/09 to 2010/11 and in 2012/13 and 2014/15. With effect from 2016-17 the target survey sample has been reduced to 6,000 annually while the survey now runs continuously.

Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS)

2016/17: http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/crime-and-justice-survey/publications

2014/15: www.gov.scot/stats/bulletins/01202

2012/13: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/01089

2010/11: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/stats/bulletins/00943

2009/10: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/11/01090437/0

2008/09: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/12/14120636/0

Scottish Crime and Victimisation Survey ( SCVS)

2006: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/10/12094216/0

2004: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2007/01/16115536/0

Scottish Crime Survey ( SCS)

2003: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48077

2000: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2002/05/14407/1405

1996: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/1998/12/5d2711f3-543b-4a34-9973-05bbba9e202e

1993: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/1999/01/66575548-b5a9-441f-834a-da44182da2af

The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey is designated as a National Statistic.

Overall victimisation rates for crime as measured by the SCJS in its current format were available from 2008/09. Reports are available from the publications section of the Scottish Government website: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/Recent. The SCJS dataset will be held on the UK Data Archive http://www.data-archive.ac.uk

Scotland's crime survey, the SCJS, measures crime by interviewing a representative sample of Scotland's population about their experiences of crime in the past year. The survey includes crime reported and not reported to the police (and therefore will not be in the crime statistics recorded by the police), providing a more accurate estimate of the extent of victimisation in Scotland of crimes covered by the survey.

The SCJS uses a pre-selected sample which aims to be representative of households in Scotland and at Police Division. In 2016/17, almost 5,570 interviews (from a target of 6,000) were conducted face-to-face using CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interview) and CASI (Computer-Assisted Self Interview) for sensitive topics.

Survey results are estimates produced using weighted analysis of survey data. All results therefore have associated confidence intervals. Some of these are outlined in the SCJS reports, and others can be calculated using an online tool. Confidence intervals are important for assessing whether apparent differences overtime or amongst population sub-groups are statistically significant.

Full details are available in the SCJS Technical Report, available from the publications section of the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey website:

http://scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/Publications/publications

Estimates for time periods before 2008/09 are not directly comparable to figures from 2008/09 forwards due to changes in survey methodology, including to continuous fieldwork. Data on past trends are drawn from a number of Scottish Crime Surveys. For 1992- 2003, data on victimisation was collected from respondents who were asked to think about their experiences in the previous calendar year. For 2004-06, data on victimisation was collected from respondents who were asked to think about their experiences in the previous financial year, and a rolling recall period was used.

DEFINITIONS:

Victimisation: where an individual or household has been the victim of a crime.

Overall victimisation rates: for the purposes of this indicator, this refers to the proportion of people who have been a victim of one or more crimes counted by the survey during the previous year (the prevalence of victimisation).

BASELINE AND PAST TRENDS:

The baseline year is 2008/09 as this data point is the closest to the start of the first term of the current administration. The baseline figure is 20.4%.

Proportion of Scottish Crime Survey respondents who were a victim of one or more crimes:

CRITERIA FOR RECENT CHANGE ARROW:

This evaluation criteria is based on the actual results presented in the Scottish Crime & Justice Survey Main Findings report for detecting statistically significant change. The calculation of the statistically significant criteria for change uses the SCJS estimates and their base sizes to calculate an accurate test statistic to compare against the absolute difference between two estimates.

The evaluation is based on: any difference within +/- 1.4 percentage point of previous survey suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. An increase of 1.4 percentage point or more suggests the position is improving; whereas a decrease of 1.4 percentage point or more suggests the position is worsening.

The change of 1.1 percentage points between 2016/17 (13.4%) 2014/15 (14.5%) is not a statistically significant change. The change is therefore within the criteria for change (measured as 1.4% this year) and so performance for this indicator is ‘maintaining’.

For information on general methodological approach, please click here.

FUTURE ISSUES OR REVIEWS:

The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey uses a rolling recall period, asking interviewees about their experiences in the 12 months immediately before the survey interview. This differs from previous crime surveys, which used fixed recall periods (either calendar or financial years). As a result, SCJS victimisation data may not be directly comparable with data collected in previous surveys. Work is being undertaken on developing a methodology to allow comparison of SCJS estimates of victimisation with existing survey data.

ASSOCIATED TARGET:

None.