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Technical Note: Increase the proportion of graduates in positive destinations

Increase the proportion of graduates in positive destinations

DESCRIPTION:

This indicator measures the percentage of Scottish domiciled graduates from Scottish Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) that are in positive destinations. For the purposes of this indicator, a positive destination is a ‘Managerial and Professional’ level job in Scotland or continued study, 6 months after graduation.

This indicator captures how graduates from Scottish HEIs meet the demands of employers for highly qualified labour in Scotland. The indicator also captures the extent to which Scottish employers offer sufficient opportunities for Scottish graduates to fulfil their aspirations in Scotland.

SOURCE:

The analysis used for the indicator is based on data from the Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education (DLHE) survey which is co-ordinated by the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) and administered by each HEI.

The HESA DLHE target population contains all UK, European Union and Non-EU domiciled HE students for whom destinations data is expected and sought. A list of exclusions applied to the DLHE target population is available on the HESA website: DLHE record coverage

The figures presented in the National Indicator are for Scottish domiciled graduates from Scottish HEIs (postgraduate and first degree). The latest overall response rate for graduates from Scottish HEIs is 71.2 per cent. Details of the survey methodology can be found on the HESA website: DLHE collection

Please note the survey underwent major changes in 2011-12. This affects the continuity of the time series. Data for 2015-16 is only directly comparable with 2011-12 to 2014-15. Further details are provided below.

DEFINITIONS:

A positive destination is a ‘Managerial and Professional’ level jobs in Scotland (as defined by the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC)) or continued study, 6 months after graduation.

The Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) is used to group the occupations of respondents to the DLHE survey. The SOC contains eight major groups with the first three groups (SOC 1 to 3) covering Managerial and Professional occupations. More information on the SOC can be found on the HESA website: SOC guidance

Scottish domiciled graduates from Scottish HEIs are students with a Scottish pre-study address, obtaining a qualification at postgraduate or first degree level from a Scottish Higher Education Institution (including the Open University).

Percentage calculations exclude non-respondents and those who refuse to provide information.

Changes to the National Indicator from 2011-12

Two key changes were made the DLHE survey (by HESA) in 2011-12:
a change to the questions used to derive respondents activities and
a change to SOC framework used to group respondents occupations.
These changes affect the comparability of data prior to 2011-12. Data for 2015-16 is only directly comparable with 2011-12 to 2014-15. This is indicated on the relevant time series charts and tables.

Changes to DLHE questions used to derive activity, implemented in 2011-12

Following a review of the DLHE survey and consultation with stakeholders, the survey was re-designed to collect richer information from leavers, particularly regarding their activities on the survey date. As a result, substantial changes were made to the DLHE questionnaire issued to 2011-12 leavers.

Leavers now report all activities (all employment activities, all education activities, all other activities) that they are undertaking on the census date and indicate which activity they consider to be most important. HESA derive destination categories from the responses, taking into account the most important activity and, in some instances, other activities the leaver is involved in. More information on the changes to the survey can be found on the HESA website: Changes to DLHE survey

Consequently, the destination categories (i.e. employment, further study, unemployment etc.) derived from the survey in 2011-12 onwards have slightly different definitions from those derived in previous years.

Changes to occupational framework, implemented in 2011-12

For those in employment in Scotland, the National Indicator defines those in ‘Managerial and Professional’ level jobs (SOC major groups 1 to 3) as in a positive destination. From 2011-12 onward, Standard Occupational Classification 2010 (SOC2010) is used for the DLHE survey whilst in previous years SOC2000 was used.

SOC2010 was devised to address deficiencies in SOC2000, to improve alignment with the international standards and to reflect changes in the real-life occupational structure in recent years. Changes include the addition of new occupations to the framework and the reclassification of occupations which were thought to be in the wrong major group.

Previous versions of the National Indicator

Previously, ‘graduate’ level jobs as outlined by Elias and Purcell (2004)* were used to define a positive destination. The Elias and Purcell methodology was based on SOC2000 and cannot now be applied to SOC2010.

Therefore, the National Indicator now uses Managerial and Professional occupations (SOC major groups 1 to 3) to define positive destinations. To improve comparability of the time series, this definition has been applied to SOC2010 (2011-12 onwards) and SOC2000 (previous years).

* 'SOC (HE) A Classification of occupations for studying the graduate labour market' (Institute for Employment Research, Warwick)’

BASELINE AND PAST TRENDS:

The baseline for the measure is the academic year 2006-07, at which point the percentage of Scottish graduates in positive destinations 6 months after completing their course was 71.3%. This percentage fell year on year to 63.5% in 2010-11, however, some of the year on year decreases were smaller than 2 percentage points which meant a ‘performance maintaining’ arrow in some years despite the downward trend.

Over the next three years, the percentage increased, however, the annual increases were smaller than 2 percentage points, which meant a ‘maintaining performance’ arrow over this period. This was followed by a 0.4 percentage point decrease in 2014-15.

 In 2015-16, 68.3% of Scots graduates were in positive destinations 6 months after graduating. This is 1.1 percentage points higher than the comparable figure of 67.2% for students graduating in 2014-15; indicating a maintaining performance.

 

Positive destinations

2002-03

62.5

2003-04

64.2

2004-05

68.1

2005-06

71.0

2006-07

71.3

2007-08

69.3

2008-09

67.4

2009-10

64.3

2010-11

63.5

2011-12

64.4

2012-13

65.8

2013-14

67.6

2014-15

67.2

2015-16

68.3

 

NOTE: changes were made to the DLHE Questionnaire issued from 2011-12 onwards. Please see definitions section for details.

CRITERIA FOR RECENT CHANGE ARROW:

The evaluation of performance is based on the following consideration. Any difference in the percentage within +/- 2 percentage points of the previous year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. An increase of 2 percentage points or more suggests the position is improving; whereas a decrease of 2 percentage points or more suggests the position is worsening. The threshold of 2 percentage points chosen is based on an assessment of the data available at this time, and may need to be reviewed as more information becomes available in the future.

For information on general methodological approach, please click here.

FUTURE ISSUES OR REVIEWS:

No issues.

ASSOCIATED TARGET:

No associated target.