Scottish Government

Increase population growth and healthy life expectancy

DESCRIPTION:

This measures changes in Scotland's population growth rate compared to the average EU15 population growth rate, and changes in levels of healthy life expectancy in Scotland.

SOURCE:

Source for population of Scotland:

Mid-year population estimates published by National Records of Scotland (NRS). The estimated population includes all those usually resident, whatever their nationality. Members of UK and non-UK armed forces stationed in Scotland are included; UK forces stationed outside Scotland are excluded. Short-term international migrants are excluded.

Scottish mid-year population estimates are National Statistics.

Data is published on this website (http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/) and are summarised in the High Level Summary: http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/stats-at-a-glance/high-level-summary-of-statistics-trends

Estimates are usually published annually in April of the following year so mid-2017 estimates will be published in April 2018 and mid-2018 estimates should be published in April 2019.

The estimates for mid-2002 onwards are based on the 2011 Census. The estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2010 were revised on 17 December 2013 to take into account the results from the 2011 Census. Previously the estimates for mid-2002 to mid-2010 were based on the 2001 Census. More information on the differences between the old and revised estimates can be found on the NRS website (http://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/statistics-and-data/statistics/statistics-by-theme/population/population-estimates/mid-year-population-estimates). The estimates for mid-2012, mid-2013 and mid-2014 were revised on 28 April 2016 to correct errors affecting the age distribution of the population, the total population of Scotland for these years did not change.

Scottish population estimates are produced using the demographic cohort component method. The estimates are based on the most recent census. Each year the population is 'aged on' one year (that is, the 0 year olds become 1 year olds and so on), the number of births in the year are added, the number of deaths subtracted and adjustments made for estimated migration (based on the best proxy sources available) and other changes in special populations.

Source for population of EU15:

Start of year population estimates are published by Eurostat. Population growth for the EU15 will be measured using the total (combined) population of the 15 countries - this is a weighted approach. An alternative approach is to use an unweighted measure, where each of the 15 countries individual population growth rates are added together and the total divided by 15 to give an EU15 countries' average.

Data is published on the Eurostat website, and can be found at, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Eurostat provides two population figures for France. For measuring progress against the target we use the 'France Metropolitaine' figure, which covers the French population residing in Europe. EuroStat also revise their population estimates when new estimates are provided to them.

Source for Healthy Life Expectancy:

Produced by ISD / ScotPHO using National Records Scotland population estimates and death registrations and General Household Survey/Scottish Household Survey data on self-assessed health. HLE is derived by combining estimates of life expectancy (LE) in years with data on self-assessed health (from surveys).

The three individual elements which feed into this measure are National Statistics but the measure itself isn't.

These data are owned by the Scottish Public Health Observatory (ScotPHO), within the Information and Statistics Division (ISD). Data are updated annually on the ScotPHO website at:

http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/introduction

HLE is derived by combining estimates of life expectancy (LE) with data on self-assessed health (from surveys).

Estimates of HLE are less robust than estimates of LE due to the use of survey data; the fact that health status is self-assessed brings in an element of potential bias to the estimates. HLE estimates have much wider confidence intervals than LE estimates.

The methodology changed in 2009 due to a change in the question used to measure self-assessed health. This change brings Scottish HLE estimates into line with the UK and other EU countries. For more details please see the technical paper on the ScotPHO website HLE pages:

http://www.scotpho.org.uk/population-dynamics/healthy-life-expectancy/references

The most recently presented LE and HLE figures for 2014, 2015, and 2016 use an upper age limit of ‘90+’ as part of the LE and HLE calculation.  This is a change from previous years, where 85+ was the upper limit, and is in line with the shift seen by NRS and ONS in their calculation of LE/HLE. 

The impact of this change is minimal and the current arrow direction of ‘performance maintaining’ would be the same whichever of the two upper age limits were used in the calculations.

More information on this change can be found in the most recent Healthy Life Expectancy publication:

http://www.isdscotland.org/Health-Topics/Public-Health/Publications/

DEFINITIONS:

Net Migration: The difference between the number of people entering the country and the number of people leaving. Short term international migrants are excluded.

European Union 15 ( EU15) - Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, UK, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Austria, Sweden and Finland.

Life Expectancy: The average number of years that a new born baby would live if they experienced the age-specific mortality rates for the area, for the time period used, throughout their life.

Healthy Life Expectancy: The estimated average number of years that a new born baby could be expected to live in 'good health'. The discrepancy between healthy and total life expectancy, therefore, indicates the average number of years likely to be spent in 'poor health'.

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if she were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime. It is obtained by summing the age-specific rates for a given time-point.

Mortality Rate: Mortality rate is a measure of the number of deaths in the population. It is typically expressed in units of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year.

Natural Change: The difference between the number of births and deaths.

BASELINE AND PAST TRENDS:

Baseline period: Mid-2007 population estimates for the Scottish population figure, and January 2007 data point for the EU figure. 2003 is the baseline for Healthy Life Expectancy. The baseline population estimates for mid-2007 were revised with rebased estimates in light of the 2011 Census and published in December 2013.

Annual population growth rates in the EU 15 countries and Scotland:

As the difference in annual growth rates are dependent on the growth rates of Scotland and EU15 countries, there may be times when figures are revised following revisions from individual EU15 countries.

¹ The difference is calculated as the EU 15 figure minus the Scottish figure.

Healthy Life Expectancy in years:

CRITERIA FOR RECENT CHANGE ARROW:

For Population Growth:

The evaluation is based on: any difference in the gap within +/- 0.1 percentage points of last year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. A movement of 0.1 percentage points or more in Scotland's favour suggests that the position is improving, whereas a movement of 0.1 percentage point or more to Scotland's detriment suggests that the position is worsening.

For Healthy Life Expectancy:

This evaluation is based on: any change in combined HLE within +/- 0.5 years of last year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. An increase in combined HLE of 0.5 years or more suggests that the position is improving; whereas a decrease of 0.5 years or more suggests the position is worsening.

Please note that this evaluation was previously based on change of +/- 0.8% of the previous year’s figure. These criteria are currently roughly equivalent since healthy life expectancy tends to be around 60 years and 0.8% of 60 years is equal to 0.48 years.

For information on general methodological approach, please click here.

FUTURE ISSUES OR REVIEWS:

The NRS population estimates are not due to be revised again until after 2021. EuroStat revise their population estimates when they receive new data from countries.

ASSOCIATED TARGET:

The 2011 Government Economic Strategy sets out a target for Scotland: To match average European (EU15) population growth over the period from 2007 to 2017, supported by increased healthy life expectancy in Scotland over this period.

Further information can be found at:

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/Doc/357756/0120893.pdf