Last updated: 19 August 2020
Here is detailed information on current evidence for direct and indirect health impacts, and social and economic impacts, of COVID-19.
You can find explanatory detail on the evidence for each impact, the data sources and (where applicable) methodology for this evidence, and any caveats that should be taken into account when interpreting or using these figures.
On 13 August, R in Scotland was estimated to be between 0.6 & 1.3.
The R value is estimated to be between 0.6 – 1.3 .
It is vital that we keep the R number consistently below 1 and see the number of infectious people continue to fall. If we do not, the virus will quickly spread again and any relaxation of lockdown conditions will most likely have to be reversed. A sustained increase above 1 would indicate exponential growth in the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths causing very significant harm to Scotland’s health, society and economy should prevalence be at an elevated level.
This is why it is important to remain vigilant and respond quickly to any local outbreaks.
The R number can be thought of as the average number of people that each infected person passes the virus on to. At this stage of the epidemic, where the number of new infections has fallen by more than 99% from its peak in March, estimates of R become increasingly uncertain, and can be strongly influenced by local outbreaks, such as we have seen recently in Aberdeen. This is why the range of our estimates for R has increased.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: SAGE Consensus
On 7 August, the Scottish Government model estimated there were around 250 infectious people.
Scottish Government modelled estimates indicate the number of infectious people is declining by around 23% each week, and will continue to decline at a similar rate over the next two weeks.
The number of people estimated to be infectious is lower than it was, but due to the highly transmissible characteristics of COVID-19, with low numbers of infected people there is the potential for a rapid increase if preventative measures diminish.
These estimates are from epidemiological modelling undertaken by the Scottish Government for Scotland as a whole based on daily deaths and other data. Because it takes a little over three weeks on average for a person who catches COVID-19 to show symptoms, become sick, and either die or recover, there is a time lag in what this model can tell us about any re-emergence of the epidemic. However, modelling of COVID-19 deaths across the epidemic is an important measure of where Scotland lies in its epidemic, as a whole.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: Scottish Government Epidemiological Model
The number of new COVID-19 cases is greatly reduced from the April peak but increased over the last two weeks.
There were over 2,000 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed each week in April from NHS laboratories alone. Although we now include the results of the UK Government testing programme as well, the number of confirmed cases is considerably lower. By early July there were fewer than 60 new cases in a week, but in the latest week there were over 330. The chart shows the cases by the date they were reported.
The World Health Organisation recommends looking at several indicators when considering whether the epidemic is controlled. This data is needed to keep track of new positive cases and to monitor the progression and impact of the virus in Scotland.
These figures will be an underestimate of the number of cases. Not everyone with COVID-19 will display symptoms and not all those with symptoms will be tested.
Source: SG open data platform
Methodology: Case count is number of cases reported by diagnostic laboratories to Health Protection Scotland as of 08:00 (GMT) on each date. Prior to 15 June, the number of Covid-19 cases are for those confirmed only by a NHS Scotland laboratory. From 15 June the numbers include a further 2,246 people tested positive through the UK Government testing programme.
Fewer people are dying of COVID-19 since a peak in April.
After peaking at 661 in the week ending 26 April, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 has reduced, and is now less than 1% of the peak level.
The World Health Organisation recommends looking at several indicators when considering whether the epidemic is controlled. One of these is a decline in the number of deaths among confirmed and probable cases at least for the last 3 weeks.
As of 16 August, there have been a total of 4,216 deaths registered where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16 March 2020. In the most recent week (10 to 16 August), there were 3 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, a decrease of 2 from the previous week (3 to 9 August). One of these deaths took place in a care home and 2 in a hospital.
Source: National Records of Scotland
Methodology: The figures in this publication focus on deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate (either as a confirmed or suspected cause of death).
COVID-19 hospital admissions peaked in first week of April, and have fallen steadily since.
Since the beginning of April, the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions per day has decreased. In the two weeks up to 5 August 2020, the average was under 1 admission per day.
COVID-19 hospital admission numbers give an indication of the impacts the virus is having on the NHS. This is an important measure for tracking the progress of the virus and helps to assess ongoing COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pressures on the NHS.
Source: Public Health Scotland
Methodology: Data from Public Health Scotland. Based on those who were either COVID-19 positive up to 14 days before their admission or had a positive result during their stay.
A&E attendances fell after lockdown but have increased steadily since the end of March.
The number of A&E attendances decreased to 40% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 29 March. Since then, A&E attendances have been increasing steadily. The latest data shows that A&E attendances are at 81% of normal levels.
A&E attendance numbers give an indication of the wider impacts COVID-19 is having across the NHS. The number of people attending A&E dropped to a low point in the week ending 29 March 2020. Since then, A&E attendances have been increasing steadily. The 'NHS is Open' campaign was launched on 24 April to encourage members of the public not to delay seeking medical advice.
Source: Public Health Scotland
Methodology: Does not include attendances to Minor Injury Units. Data from Public Health Scotland. Additional breakdowns (e.g. by Health Board) are available via the referenced source.
Deaths are 8% below the normal level.
After peaking at 878 in the week ending 12 April, the number of excess deaths has reduced. For the most recent week (ending 16 August) deaths are 8% below the normal level.
Excess deaths are the total number of deaths registered in a week in 2020 minus the average number of deaths registered in the same week over the period 2015 to 2019. Measuring excess deaths allows us to track seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats. Excess deaths include deaths caused by COVID-19 and those resulting from other causes. In this chart, excess deaths are shown by the difference between the grey line, which shows the weekly average for deaths over the previous 5 years (2015 – 2019), and the blue line showing total deaths in 2020.
The other blue line on this chart is labelled ‘COVID-19 deaths 2020’ - this shows weekly totals for the number of COVID-19 deaths. Presenting this alongside ‘total deaths 2020’ shows the extent to which COVID-19 deaths have contributed to the number of excess deaths in 2020, and the extent to which the number of excess deaths may be attributable to other causes or indirectly caused by COVID-19. In the week ending 26 April, there were 661 COVID-19 deaths that contributed to an overall total of 1,836 deaths. The 5 year weekly average tells us that we would typically expect 1,087 deaths in that week – there is a difference (or ‘excess’) of 749, of which 661 were related to COVID-19.
Source: National Records of Scotland
Methodology: Excess deaths are the total number of deaths registered in a week in 2020 minus the average number of deaths registered in the same week over the period 2015 to 2019.
After lockdown there was a fall in emergency and planned hospital admissions. Since 29 March, emergency admissions have increased. Since 19 April, planned admissions have increased.
The number of emergency admissions dropped to 60% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 29 March, and has been increasing since then. Latest data shows emergency admissions are at 89% of normal levels. The number of planned hospital admissions dropped to 27% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 19 April. The number of planned admissions has been increasing gradually since then. Latest data shows planned admissions are at 60% of normal levels.
Hospital admission numbers give an indication of the wider impacts COVID-19 is having across the NHS. The number of emergency admissions dropped to a low point in the week ending 29 March; the number of planned hospital admissions dropped to a low point in the week ended 19 April. All elective procedures were suspended when lockdown began. Emergency and planned admission numbers have since increased. The 'NHS is Open' campaign was launched on 24 April to encourage members of the public not to delay seeking medical advice.
Public Health Scotland publishes a dashboard which presents more information on the wider impacts COVID-19 is having on the health care system. It provides information on hospital admissions, unscheduled care and volume of calls to NHS24. You can view the data presented by age, sex, deprivation quintile, specialty, elective versus emergency and by geographical location.
Source: NHSScotland open data platform
Methodology: Data from Public Health Scotland. Additional breakdowns (e.g. by Health Board) are available via the referenced source.
People have been reluctant to go to a GP or hospital for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns, but are becoming more willing to.
The proportion of people who agree that they would avoid GPs or hospital for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns has decreased, from a high of 45% in late April. Since then, it has reduced, and is now at its lowest level - 27%.
There has been a reluctance for people to seek non-COVID-19 healthcare treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence suggests that during the pandemic between 28-45% of people agreed or strongly agreed they would avoid visiting GPs or hospitals for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns. This proportion was highest in April but has decreased by a third since then, suggesting that although some people may be becoming more willing to seek treatment for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns, there is still a relatively high proportion of people who are worried about this. Responses were broadly similar across different groups of the population.
Source: YouGov Plc
Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 21-23 April onwards, weekly. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+).
The number of children and young people at education settings increased from the start of April, but remained low.
The number of children and young people attending settings (school, local authority, grant-aided, private/independent, voluntary settings, and childminders) gradually increased throughout lockdown, but remained a very low proportion of all children and young people. On 30 March, 5,840 children and young people attended an education setting. By 26 June (before the start of school summer holidays) this had increased to 13,997 children and young people. From Wednesday 1 July 2020 , figures reflect summer holiday provision. For the week beginning 3 August, attendance figures are lower as some local authorities closed schools hubs to prepare for school reopening.
After 10 August, schools started to reopen and pupils began to return to school. Data on attendance will be provided once it is available.
Throughout lockdown, children and young people whose parents/carers are key workers, and vulnerable children and young people, are to have access to care and schooling in settings outside of the home. This is so that key workers can continue with their work, and vulnerable children and young people can access safe support and learning. The number of children and young people being supported to received free school lunches provided by local authorities increased from around 140,000 in mid-April 2020 to around 175,000 in mid-June 2020. After 26 June, provision continued to be available during school holidays to vulnerable children and young people and those of key workers, though there are some differences between local authorities. After 10 August, schools started to reopen and pupils began to return to school. Data on attendance will be provided once it is available.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: During the summer holidays, in East Renfrewshire and Glasgow City hubs are being run by out of school care providers. For both local authorities, the vouchers, direct payments or home deliveries of free school lunches figure has been rolled forward from the last week in June. Definitions of 'education setting' and 'free school meals' outlined in this tableau dashboard.
Scottish Welfare Fund crisis grant applications were 40% higher in June 2020 compared to June 2019.
The Scottish Welfare Fund is administered by local authorities. Crisis grants aim to help people who are in crisis because of a disaster or an emergency.
In March 2020 demand for crisis grants started increasing rapidly compared to previous years and continued to increase in April 2020. This suggests that more people were experiencing emergencies (such as income or benefits being used up, or money being stolen) or disasters (such as fires or floods). It is likely that the increase in applications is due to financial hardship resulting from COVID-19. Demand for crisis grants decreased in May and June 2020 but remained higher than in the same months in 2019
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: Figures are collected from local authorities at the end of each month and combined to Scotland level.
Since lockdown there has been an overall reduction in crime recorded by police.
The overall number of crimes recorded by the police between April to June 2020 was 9% lower than the same period in 2019. This included April 2020 being 18% lower than April 2019, May 2020 being 5% lower than May 2019, and June 2020 being 3% lower than June 2019.
Changes in police recorded crime is one indicator of the impact that the COVID-19 restrictions are having across society. For example while there has been a reduction in violence and sexual crime, there has been an increase in fraud. Some caution is advised before attributing all differences to COVID-19. Longer term trends, which continue from before the pandemic, may remain a factor in some types of offending recorded by the police.
Source: Recorded Crime in Scotland: June 2020
Methodology: The total figure for recorded crime excludes the new crimes being recorded under the recently enacted coronavirus legislation. See the source publication for more information.
People report high levels of loneliness, even as restrictions on socialising have eased slightly.
At the end of May, 59% of people said they had felt lonely some/most/almost all, or all of the time in the last week. This has remained between 53% and 57% since then.
The lockdown period has been associated with higher than usual levels of reported loneliness. The majority of people report feeling lonely at least some of the time in the previous week. This has persisted even as restrictions on social gatherings have eased slightly.
Source: Ipsos Mori
Methodology: Web panel survey
There are consistently high levels of trust in the Scottish Government.
Since mid-May, the proportion of people who say they trust the Scottish Government to work in Scotland’s best interest has remained between 73% and 79%.
Evidence suggests consistently high levels of trust in the Scottish Government. Since mid-May, around three quarters to four fifths of people have said they trust the Scottish Government to work in Scotland’s best interest.
Source: Ipsos Mori
Methodology: Web panel survey
A high proportion of employees are worried about the threat COVID-19 poses to their job or business.
People who are employed were asked how worried they are about the impact of COVID-19 on their job or business. In early April, 50% of people said COVID-19 posed a threat to their job or business. This has since decreased to between 40%-42% each week since early June.
The measures introduced to control the spread of COVID-19 have involved the shutdown of many parts of the economy. Evidence suggests that a high proportion of employees are worried about their job or business. This was highest in April and May, decreased in June, but still represents a relatively high proportion of employees.
Source: Ipsos Mori
Methodology: Web panel survey
The number of people saying they intend to avoid public transport remains high.
In Scotland, there has been an increase in the number of people saying they intend to avoid public transport, and to use their car or other vehicle more. In mid-April, 53% of people said this; at the most recent measure 70% of people said this.
There is a high level of concern about contracting or spreading COVID-19 when using public transport, and about being able to observe physical distancing on public transport. Some people have more access to alternatives to public transport than others. Households with higher income are more likely to have access to a car or a van. People from lower income households are more reliant on public transport and active travel e.g. walking. Women typically have less access to a car than men, and are more likely to be more reliant on public transport, particularly buses. Considering whether a journey is necessary, whether active travel is an option, and whether a journey could be made on public transport at non-peak times of day, could minimise the risk posed to those who need to use public transport at specific times.
Source: Ipsos Mori
Methodology: Telephone survey
Business turnover has fallen sharply across most sectors.
All Industries
Manufacturing and Services
Services industries
In June, Scotland's business turnover index was 24.6. This is up from 23.3 in May, but remains significantly below its normal range of around 45 to 55 seen since 2011.
The Monthly Business Turnover Index gives an early indicator of business activity in Scotland, based on survey data used by the Scottish Government for GDP statistics. Latest results for June show that most companies continue to report that turnover is down, though to a slightly lesser extent than in May and April. This reflects the impact of the ongoing restrictions on activity. Lower turnover is seen in both the manufacturing and services sectors. Improvement in the indicator since May and April is in keeping with other business indicators, signalling gradual recovery in business activity. However, the broad based falls in business turnover compared to last year continue to emphasise the challenging cashflow position that many businesses are facing. Women and young people (aged under 25) are more likely to work in sectors which have been required to close, and which may continue to be affected by restrictions. The average wage in some of the most affected sectors (e.g. Accommodation and Food Services) is low – this means employees are likely to be more vulnerable to reductions in income levels that could accompany furlough or unemployment.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: The Monthly Business Turnover Index is an experimental statistics release. It is based on data from the ONS Monthly Business Survey and Retail Sales Inquiry. It reports the net balance of firms reporting increasing or decreasing turnover, in real terms, compared to 12 months ago. Values below 50 indicate that more companies are showing decreased turnover than increased turnover.
GDP has fallen sharply during the pandemic and lockdown.
In May, Scotland's GDP grew 1.5% (UK: 1.8%), however following sharp falls in March and April, it is 22.1% below the level in February (UK: -24.5%).
The pandemic and necessary restrictions are having an unprecedented impact on the economy. Scotland’s GDP increased by 1.5% in May after falling 18.9% in April and 5.5% in March. As such, GDP remains 22.1% below its level in February, prior to lockdown measures. After output fell in nearly every industry during April, the results for May are more mixed with some parts of the economy seeing a pickup in activity as firms adapted to physical distancing and some returned to work. However, other industries experienced further falls in output due to the ongoing lockdown and wider impacts on activity.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest and most widely used measure of economic activity. Changes in GDP over time are estimated using information about the output of each industry across all sectors of the economy. Monthly GDP estimates are experimental statistics, which means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty. Further information can be found at www.gov.scot/gdp.
Unemployment increased over the quarter to April - June.
In April - June Scotland's unemployment rate was 4.5% (UK: 3.9%). This was up 0.4 percentage points over the quarter and 0.8 percentage points over the year.
Scotland's unemployment rate has risen over the quarter, however, it is important to note that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and support for the Self-Employed have been supporting the level of employment. At the end of June, 736,500 employments in Scotland were registered on the Job Retention Scheme and 155,000 self-employed individuals had made a claim to the Self-employment Income Support Scheme. UK level data shows that the youngest employees are more likely to have been registered on the Job Retention Scheme, with the youngest female employees most likely to have been furloughed. 61% of female employees aged 17 have been furloughed, compared to 58% of male employees aged 17. Across all age groups, men are slightly more likely to be registered on the Job Retention Scheme, making up approximately 54% of furloughed employees.
Source: Scottish Government Office for National Statistics
Methodology: The unemployment rate shows the proportion of the economically active population (age 16 years +) who are unemployed (seeking work and available to work).
The Claimant Count has increased sharply since March.
In July, Scotland's Claimant Count was 222,300. This was up 4.3% since June and had doubled since March.
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed. The sharp rise in the Claimant Count since March during lockdown signals that unemployment is rising and incomes are falling.In the period 13 March to 9 April, 56% of Universal Credit new starts were male, and 44% were female. Since March, a larger than usual proportion of Universal Credit new starts are men, suggesting that men are initially more likely than women to have become unemployed since lockdown. This means that the overall gender split of people on Universal Credit has changed - slightly more men than women now claim Universal Credit. In the same period, the majority of new starts to Universal Credit were in the 35-49 age group (33%), followed by people aged 25-34 (31%).
Source: Scottish Government Office for National Statistics
Methodology: The Claimant Count data is experimental and includes those claimants of Universal Credit who are required to search for work, i.e. within the Searching for Work conditionality regime as defined by the Department for Work & Pensions, as well as all Jobseekers Allowance claimants.