Last updated: 13 January 2021
Here is detailed information on current evidence for direct and indirect health impacts, and social and economic impacts, of COVID-19.
You can find explanatory detail on the evidence for each impact, the data sources and (where applicable) methodology for this evidence, and any caveats that should be taken into account when interpreting or using these figures.
On 6 January, R in Scotland was estimated to be between 0.9 and 1.3.
The R value is estimated to be between 0.9 and 1.3. The upper estimate is higher than last week, which means that the epidemic is likely in another growth phase.
For the number of infectious people to fall we need to keep the R number consistently below 1. A sustained increase above 1 indicates exponential growth in the number of cases, leading to increased hospitalisations and deaths, and causing very significant harm to Scotland’s health, society and economy should prevalence be at an elevated level.
This is why it is important to remain vigilant and respond quickly to any outbreaks and increases in cases. The R number can be thought of as the average number of people that each infected person passes the virus on to.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: SAGE Consensus
As of 6 January, COVID-19 incidence in Scotland was estimated to be between 47 and 188 new daily infections per 100,000 people.
COVID-19 incidence in Scotland is estimated to be between 47 and 188 new daily infections per 100,000 people. This equates to between 2,600 and 10,300 people becoming infected each day in Scotland. This is higher than last week's estimate.
This indicator was not available before 12 August 2020.
The various groups which report to the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) use different sources of data in their models to produce estimates of incidence. The figures here show SPI-M’s consensus view across these methods.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: SPI-M Consensus
The number of new COVID-19 cases increased rapidly over the last three weeks.
There were over 2,000 new cases of COVID-19 confirmed each week in April. From the peak in late April there was a sustained decline and by early July there were fewer than 60 new cases in a week, even in the context of increased testing. After 13 consecutive weeks of increasing cases, reaching over 10,000 in the week ending 26 October, there was a decrease in the weekly number of cases to just over 5,200 in the week to 19 December. Cases have since increased rapidly and there were over 15,100 cases in the week ending 10 January. The chart shows the cases by the date they were reported.
The World Health Organisation recommends looking at several indicators when considering whether the epidemic is controlled. This data is needed to keep track of new positive cases and to monitor the progression and impact of the virus in Scotland.
These figures will be an underestimate of the number of cases. Not everyone with COVID-19 will display symptoms and not all those with symptoms will be tested.
In addition, while the number of positive cases is higher than in the April 2020 peak, a greater number of tests are now being completed, with, for example, around 120,000 to 130,000 per week in October compared to 10,000 to 20,000 per week in April. Testing capacity has also increased and Scotland is on track to increase overall testing capacity to 65,000 tests per day by winter. In addition, the ONS Covid-19 Infection Survey now indicates an estimated 1 in 115 would have tested positive for coronavirus in Scotland in the latest week period (25-31st December 2020). This equates to around 45,900 people (95% credible interval: 37,900 to 54,900)
Source: SG open data platform
Methodology: Case count is number of cases reported by diagnostic laboratories to Health Protection Scotland as of 08:00 (GMT) on each date. Prior to 15 June, the number of Covid-19 cases are for those confirmed only by a NHS Scotland laboratory. From 15 June the numbers include a further 2,246 people tested positive through the UK Government testing programme.
COVID-19 deaths have risen sharply after falling for 5 consecutive weeks.
After peaking at 279 in the week ending 15 November, the number of deaths involving COVID-19 reduced but at a much slower rate than after the spring peak. In the latest week, deaths have increased sharply. Some, but not all, of this increase will be due to registrars catching up with the death registration backlog following the public holidays.
The World Health Organisation recommends looking at several indicators when considering whether the epidemic is controlled. One of these is a decline in the number of deaths among confirmed and probable cases at least for the last 3 weeks.
As of 10 January 2021, there have been a total of 7,074 deaths registered where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. The first mention of COVID-19 in a registered death certificate was the week beginning 16 March 2020. In the most recent week (4 to 10 January), there were 384 deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, an increase of 197 from the previous week (28 December to 3 January). 251 of these deaths took place in hospitals, 113 in care homes, and 19 at home or a non-institutional setting.
Source: National Records of Scotland
Methodology: The figures in this publication focus on deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate (either as a confirmed or suspected cause of death).
COVID-19 hospital admissions have remained fairly stable since the start of December.
The average number of COVID-19 hospital admissions per day is lower than the first peak of over 170 in the first week of April, and the second peak of over 120 at the end of October. Hospital admissions decreased throughout November and remained relatively stable throughout December. The most recent data show an average of 81 COVID-19 admissions per day in week up to 29 December.
COVID-19 hospital admission numbers give an indication of the impacts the virus is having on the NHS. This is an important measure for tracking the progress of the virus and helps to assess ongoing COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 pressures on the NHS.
Source: Public Health Scotland
Methodology: Data from Public Health Scotland. Based on those who were either COVID-19 positive up to 14 days before their admission or had a positive result during their stay.
A&E attendances increased after lockdown until 20 September, and have decreased slightly since then.
The number of A&E attendances decreased to 40% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 29 March. A&E attendances then increased to around 85% of normal levels throughout August and September. Since mid September, A&E attendances have decreased slightly to 75% of normal levels in the week ending 22 November.
A&E attendance numbers give an indication of the wider impacts COVID-19 is having across the NHS. The number of people attending A&E dropped to a low point in the week ending 29 March 2020. Since then, A&E attendances increased to over 85% of normal levels. A&E attendances have decreased slightly since mid September. The 'NHS is Open' campaign was launched on 24 April to encourage members of the public not to delay seeking medical advice.
Source: NHSScotland open data platform
Methodology: Does not include attendances to Minor Injury Units. Data from Public Health Scotland. Additional breakdowns (e.g. by Health Board) are available via the referenced source. From October, this data will be updated once per month.
Deaths are 34% above the normal level.
After returning to normal levels over the summer months, excess deaths reached a second peak of 230 (20% above average) in the week ending 22 November. For the most recent week (ending 10 January) deaths are 34% above the normal level.
Excess deaths are the total number of deaths registered in a week minus the average number of deaths registered in the same week over the previous five years. Measuring excess deaths allows us to track seasonal influenza, pandemics and other public health threats. Excess deaths include deaths caused by COVID-19 and those resulting from other causes. In this chart, excess deaths are shown by the difference between the grey line, which shows the weekly average for deaths over the previous 5 years (2015 – 2019), and the blue line showing total deaths in 2020 and 2021.
The 2015-2019 average will continue to be used to measure excess deaths in 2021 as using the 2016-2020 average will be inflated by the high number of deaths in 2020.
The other blue line on this chart is labelled ‘COVID-19 deaths’ - this shows weekly totals for the number of COVID-19 deaths. Presenting this alongside ‘total deaths’ for the same week shows the extent to which COVID-19 deaths have contributed to the number of excess deaths , and the extent to which the number of excess deaths may be attributable to other causes or indirectly caused by COVID-19. In the week ending 26 April 2020, there were 662 COVID-19 deaths that contributed to an overall total of 1,836 deaths. The 5 year weekly average tells us that we would typically expect 1,087 deaths in that week – there is a difference (or ‘excess’) of 749, of which 662 were related to COVID-19.
Source: National Records of Scotland
Methodology: Excess deaths are the total number of deaths registered in a week in 2020 minus the average number of deaths registered in the same week over the period 2015 to 2019.
After lockdown there was a fall in emergency and planned hospital admissions. After increasing until early September, emergency admissions have decreased slightly and planned admissions have remained stable.
The number of emergency admissions dropped to 60% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 29 March. Emergency admissions then increased to a peak of 94% of normal levels in the week ending 13 September. Since then, emergency admissions have decreased slightly to 83% of normal levels in the week ending 22 November. The number of planned hospital admissions dropped to 27% of normal pre-COVID-19 levels in the week ending 19 April. The number of planned admissions increased since then and has remained between 70% and 80% of normal levels since the week ending 6 September. Latest data shows planned admissions are at 76% of normal levels for the week ending 22 November.
Hospital admission numbers give an indication of the wider impacts COVID-19 is having across the NHS. The number of emergency admissions dropped to a low point in the week ending 29 March; the number of planned hospital admissions dropped to a low point in the week ended 19 April. All elective procedures were suspended when lockdown began. Emergency and planned admission numbers increased until early September. Planned admissions have since remained stable and emergency admissions have decreased slightly. The 'NHS is Open' campaign was launched on 24 April to encourage members of the public not to delay seeking medical advice.
Public Health Scotland publishes a dashboard which presents more information on the wider impacts COVID-19 is having on the health care system. It provides information on hospital admissions, unscheduled care and volume of calls to NHS24. You can view the data presented by age, sex, deprivation quintile, specialty, elective versus emergency and by geographical location.
Source: NHSScotland open data platform
Methodology: Data from Public Health Scotland. Additional breakdowns (e.g. by Health Board) are available via the referenced source. From October, this data will be updated once per month.
A substantial minority are reluctant to contact a GP practice at the moment for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns.
The proportion of people who agree that they would avoid contacting a GP practice at the moment for immediate non-COVID-19 health concerns is 33%.
There has been a reluctance from people to seek non-COVID-19 healthcare treatment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence suggests that since the end of October between 24-33% of people agreed or strongly agreed that they would avoid contacting a GP practice at the moment even if they had an immediate medical concern (not related to Coronavirus). Responses were broadly similar across different groups of the population.
Source: YouGov Plc
Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 21-23 April onwards, weekly. This question was included from 27-28 October, replacing a previous question asking whether people would avoid the GP/hospital. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+).
On 16 December the percentage of school openings where pupils were not in school for COVID-19 related reasons was 5.0%.
From 11 August, schools started to re-open and pupils began to return to school. Provisional figures for 16 December show that the overall attendance rate at local authority primary, secondary and special schools that are open was 86.9%. The percentage of school openings where pupils were not in school for COVID-19 related reasons has increased from around 2% at the end of September to 5.0% on 16 December. The absence rate for non COVID-19 related reasons rose to 12.3% on 28 August, but has since fallen to 8.1% on 16 December. Data will be affected by public and school holidays, in particular the week beginning 12 October, where schools in 29 local authorities were closed for the October break and so were not included in these statistics. Scottish Government Education Analytical Services publishes a dashboard which contains additional information on school attendance and absence.
Schools were closed in March due to COVID-19 restrictions. Throughout lockdown, children and young people whose parents/carers are key workers, and vulnerable children and young people, had access to care and schooling in settings outside of the home. This was so that key workers could continue with their work, and vulnerable children and young people had access to safe support and learning. The number of children and young people at education settings gradually increased throughout lockdown, but remained a very low proportion of all children and young people. Scottish Government Education Analytical Services publishes a dashboard which presents information on this.
Source: Scottish Government COVID-19: daily data for Scotland
Methodology: This information is provisional and currently based on Local Authority schools only (primary, secondary and special schools). The attendance and absence rates are calculated on the number of half days (i.e. openings) a child or young person is recorded being in or out of school (together with the reason for not being in school), as recorded on school management information systems. The number of children and young people who are absent due to COVID-19-related reasons is based on counting any child or young person who is recorded as being absent due to a COVID-19-related reason for all or part of the day (i.e. all day, or for half a day).
Scottish Welfare Fund crisis grant applications were 25% higher in October 2020 than in October 2019.
The Scottish Welfare Fund is administered by local authorities. Crisis grants aim to help people who are in crisis because of a disaster or an emergency.
In March 2020 demand for crisis grants started increasing rapidly compared to previous years and peaked in April 2020. Demand then decreased until July 2020, but remained higher than in the same months in 2019 before increasing again in September and October 2020. It is likely that these increases in demand for Crisis Grants have been due to financial hardship resulting from COVID-19.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: Figures are collected from local authorities at the end of each month and combined to Scotland level.
Since lockdown there has been an overall reduction in crime recorded by police.
The overall number of crimes recorded by the police between April to November 2020 was 6% lower than the same period in 2019. In April 2020 recorded crime was 18% lower than April 2019. For the most recent month - November 2020 - recorded crime was 1% higher than in November 2019.
Changes in police recorded crime is one indicator of the impact that the COVID-19 restrictions are having across society. For example, while there has been a reduction in violence and sexual crime in April to November (compared to the same period in 2019), there has been an increase in fraud. Some caution is advised before attributing all differences to COVID-19. Longer term trends, which existed before the pandemic, may remain a factor in some types of offending recorded by the police.
Source: Recorded Crime in Scotland: November 2020
Methodology: The total figure for recorded crime excludes the new crimes being recorded under the recently enacted coronavirus legislation. See the source publication for more information.
More than half of people report feeling lonely.
In Ipsos MORI surveys carried out between May and July 2020 between 53-59% felt lonely some/most/almost all or all of the time. This indicator is now measured by YouGov surveys with the same question, but slightly different sampling method and 44-52% of people said they experienced loneliness in the four survey waves carried out in July through to September. It is now at 51%.
The lockdown period has been associated with higher than usual levels of reported loneliness. The majority of people report feeling lonely at least some of the time in the previous week. This has persisted even as restrictions on social gatherings have eased slightly. People aged 18-44 are more likely to have felt lonely at least some of the time than those aged 45+.
Source: YouGov
Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 28 July onwards, weekly. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+) in terms of age, gender, social class, region and level of education . Previous trends on this measure were taken from Ipsos Mori surveys, which had a smaller sample size (c500-650) and were representative of Scottish adults (aged 16-74) in terms of age and gender. In July the questions were transferred to a YouGov survey to consolidate our data collection across Scottish Government teams and research needs.
There are consistently high levels of trust in the Scottish Government.
Since mid-May, the proportion of people who said they trusted the Scottish Government to work in Scotland’s best interests, in Ipsos MORI surveys was between 73% and 79%. This is now measured by YouGov survey using the same question and with a similar measure, and is 71% this wave.
Evidence suggests consistently high levels of trust in the Scottish Government. Since mid-May, around three quarters to four fifths of people have said they trust the Scottish Government to work in Scotland’s best interests. Women are more likely than men to say they trust the Scottish Government a great deal/quite a lot to work in Scotland’s best interests.
Source: YouGov
Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 28 July onwards, weekly. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+) in terms of age, gender, social class, region and level of education . Previous trends on this measure were taken from Ipsos Mori surveys, which had a smaller sample size (c500-650) and were representative of Scottish adults (aged 16-74) in terms of age and gender. In July the questions were transferred to a YouGov survey to consolidate our data collection across Scottish Government teams and research needs.
One quarter of employees are worried about the threat COVID-19 poses to their job.
People who are employed were asked how worried they are about the impact of COVID-19 on their job. Consistent with previous weeks, 25% report a perceived 'high' or 'very high' threat to their job.
The measures introduced to control the spread of COVID-19 have involved the shutdown of many parts of the economy. Recent waves of data collection show that between one fifth and a quarter perceive a 'high' or 'very high' threat to their job.
Source: YouGov
Methodology: Web panel survey. Total sample size is c. 1000 adults each week. Fieldwork undertaken from 14 July onwards, weekly. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all Scottish adults (aged 18+) in terms of age, gender, social class, region and level of education . We previously presented analysis on a similar measure from a different source. Since the sources are not directly comparable we are only showing newer data from YouGov.
The number of people saying they are concerned about people contracting or spreading COVID-19 on public transport remains high.
There has been a consistently high number of people saying they are 'very' or 'fairly' concerned about people contracting or spreading COVID-19 on public transport. This peaked during lockdown at 82%. At the most recent measure, 69% of people agreed with this.
There is a high level of concern about people contracting or spreading COVID-19 when using public transport, and about being able to observe physical distancing on public transport. Women demonstrate consistently higher concern about people contracting or spreading the virus on public transport than men - this may reflect that women typically have less access to a car than men, and are more likely to be more reliant on public transport, particularly buses. Some people have more access to alternatives to public transport than others. Households with a higher income are more likely to have access to a car or a van. People from lower income households are more reliant on public transport and active travel e.g. walking. Considering whether a journey is necessary, whether active travel is an option, and whether a journey could be made on public transport at non-peak times of day, could reduce the risk posed to those who need to use public transport at specific times.
Source: Transport Scotland Public Attitudes Survey
Methodology: Telephone survey
Turnover has strengthened but remains below pre-pandemic levels.
All Industries
Manufacturing and Services
Services industries
In November, Scotland's business turnover index was 40.7. This is down from 42.6 in October, but remains below its normal range of around 45 to 55 seen since 2011.
Business turnover data for November indicate that there was an decrease in business activity over the month and that total output remained lower than last year. While the annual turnover index has strengthened for six consecutive months to October, the latest month has seen a weakening. Similar to other business activity indicators, the pace of recovery in the turnover index has slowed from the summer months. Furthermore, the broad based falls in business turnover compared to last year continue to emphasise the challenging trading environment that many businesses are facing.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: The Monthly Business Turnover Index is an experimental statistics release. It is based on data from the ONS Monthly Business Survey and Retail Sales Inquiry. It reports the net balance of firms reporting increasing or decreasing turnover, in real terms, compared to 12 months ago. Values below 50 indicate that more companies are showing decreased turnover than increased turnover.
GDP has grown in recent months following unprecedented falls in output.
In October, Scotland's GDP grew 0.6% (UK: 0.4%). This is the sixth consecutive month of growth, however GDP remains 5.7% below its level in February (UK: 7.9%).
The pandemic and necessary restrictions are having an unprecedented impact on the economy. Scotland’s GDP increased by 0.6% in October, the sixth consecutive month of growth following the large drops in March (-5.6%) and April (-19.3%). However, like the UK as a whole, the pace of growth in October continued to slow compared to July (7.6%) and August (2.8%). Despite growth in the last sixth months, GDP remains 5.7% below its level in February, prior to lockdown measures. Compared to the lowest point in April, this means that around 76% of the lost output has been recovered.
Source: Scottish Government
Methodology: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest and most widely used measure of economic activity. Changes in GDP over time are estimated using information about the output of each industry across all sectors of the economy. Monthly GDP estimates are experimental statistics, which means that they are still in development but have been released to enable their use at an early stage. All results are provisional and subject to relatively high levels of uncertainty. Further information can be found at www.gov.scot/gdp.
The unemployment rate was 4.2% in August to October.
In August to October, Scotland's unemployment rate was 4.2% (UK: 4.9%). This is down 0.6 percentage points of the quarter and up 0.6 percentage points over the year.
The unemployment rate compares well against historical trends, however the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme supported around 8% of the workforce at the end of October. Based on the Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate for women is 3.9% and for men is 4.6%. The unemployment rate for young people (16 to 24 years) is 10%. The overall unemployment rate is projected to rise with business surveys signalling further reductions in staffing levels into November.
Source: Scottish Government [Office for National Statistics]
Methodology: The unemployment rate shows the proportion of the economically active population (age 16 years +) who are unemployed (seeking work and available to work).
The Claimant Count has increased sharply since March.
In November, Scotland's Claimant Count was 214,200. This increased 1.1% over the month and is 92% higher than in March.
The Claimant Count measures the number of people claiming benefit principally for the reason of being unemployed. The sharp rise in the Claimant Count from March signals that unemployment is rising and incomes are falling. Latest data shows 214,200 claimants of unemployment related benefit in November. This consists of 132,800 males and 81,400 females.
Source: Scottish Government Office for National Statistics
Methodology: The Claimant Count data is experimental and includes those claimants of Universal Credit who are required to search for work, i.e. within the Searching for Work conditionality regime as defined by the Department for Work & Pensions, as well as all Jobseekers Allowance claimants.